A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
